Santorum, Romney Locked in Virtual Tie in Michigan

UPDATE: Rick Santorum may be trending upward in the national polls, but the only numbers that matter Tuesday are the ones coming out of Arizona and Michigan, where Republican voters will have their say on who wins their party's nomination.

If a new poll is to believed, it could be late night for reporters and political observers in the Wolverine State. The survey from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling suggests that Santorum and Mitt Romney are locked in a virtual tie in Michigan, with Santorum up 38 percent to 37 (a gap well within the poll's margin of error). Ron Paul sits in third with 14 percent, trailed by Newt Gingrich with 9 percent.

Santorum has seen his state numbers rebound of late in Michigan, but that doesn't mean he can rest assured that surge will be reflected in the final tally. PPP explains:

"Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum's direction, there's one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner [Tuesday] night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum's likely to win election day voters, but he's going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote."

According to a Real Clear Politics average of the four most recent polls in Michigan, Romney is up 1.5 points on Santorum. The former Massachusetts governor, meanwhile, is up big in Arizona, where he is poised for a likely double-digit win over Santorum if the current polling data is to believed.

Monday, Feb. 27: Depending on your poll of choice, President Obama is either up by double digits in hypothetical matchups with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney—or is in a dead heat with both. Regardless, the data suggests that Romney may no longer be able to lay claim to the title as the most electable Republican in the race.

One of the two new polls, from Politico and George Washington University, finds the president with a comfortable lead over his two most likely November challengers, besting Santorum 53 percent to 42 and Romney 53 percent to 43. That poll has a margin of error of 3.1 points, so Obama's lead appears to be significant.

But the second poll suggests the race is much closer and that Santorum may actually have inched ahead of Obama. The USA Today/Gallup survey found the former Pennsylvania senator with a 49-46 lead over Obama, and Romney knotted at 47-percent apiece with the president.

While Santorum's lead is within the poll's 4-point margin of error, it nonetheless would appear to give the former Pennsylvania senator bragging rights over Romney, who has long sought to paint himself as the only Republican hopeful capable of going head-to-head with the president in November's general election.