Santorum Takes Lead in National Poll

UPDATE: For a while there, it seemed like only a matter of time before former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would drop out. Not anymore. For the first time, Santorum has taken a lead in a national poll. Less than a week after he beat Mitt Romney in three primary contests, Santorum is now 15 points ahead of the former governor, according to Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. The group's latest poll shows Santorum with 38 percent of the support compared to Romney's 23 percent. Newt Gingrich comes in at third place with 17 percent and Ron Paul is stuck in the last spot with 13 percent.

Santorum has a high level of popularity, notes PPP, with 64 percent of voters seeing him favorably and only 22 percent expressing a negative view of him. Romney and Gingrich aren’t so lucky. Romney’s favorability rating “is barely above water,” with 44 percent saying they view him favorably and 43 percent negatively. Meanwhile, 44 percent of Republican voters see Gingrich negatively, compared to 42 percent who have a positive view of him. The numbers represent quite a steep fall for both of them. Two months ago, 55 percent of Republicans saw Romney in a favorable light and 60 percent had a positive opinion of Gingrich.

The poll points out that if it weren’t for Gingrich, Santorum would have an even wider lead. If Gingrich abandoned the race, 58 percent of his supporters would go to Santorum, compared to 22 percent who would go to Romney.

Public Policy Polling is careful to note that Santorum's new lead could quickly vanish. "It's important to keep in mind, though, that fewer than half of his voters are firmly committed to him," said Dean Debnam, the polling firm's president, in a news release. “When he comes under attack in the coming days, his lead could evaporate just as quickly as it was created.” Highlighting the volatility of the Republican contest, more than half of GOP voters say they could change their minds about who they support.

Friday, Feb. 11: Tuesday's sweep did more than just boost Rick Santorum's national poll numbers, it also appears to have bolstered his bank account.

The former Pennsylvania senator raised roughly $2.2 million for his campaign in the first two days after his wins in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado, according to his spokesman. That's roughly the same amount the White House hopeful raised in all of 2011.

Of course, he's still got a long way to go to catch front-runner Mitt Romney, who brought in more than $57 million last year, and even further to catch President Obama, who raised nearly $140 million in 2011, according to the New York Times.

Thursday, Feb. 10: Fresh off his hat trick Tuesday, Rick Santorum is surging in the national polls and is now tied with Newt Gingrich for second place.

The new Gallup poll numbers, which represent the five-day average of its daily surveys, show both Santorum and Gingrich knotted at 20 percent each. Mitt Romney, meanwhile, remains out in front, favored by 36 percent of likely GOP voters. Ron Paul sits in fourth with 10 percent.

The good news for Santorum is that the five-day average spans back to Saturday, three days before he posted dominant wins in Minnesota and Missouri and a surprise upset of Romney in Colorado, suggesting that we may not yet be seeing the complete bump the former Pennsylvania senator will see as a result.

While none of those wins earned the former Pennsylvania senator any actual delegates, taken together they have pushed his once struggling campaign back into the media spotlight and created a new campaign narrative that has caused headaches for both Romney and Gingrich.

USA Today points out that Santorum's support in Gallup's polling has grown 4 points since the five-day average that ended Feb. 3. Gingrich, on the other hand, has fallen 6 points since losing the Florida primary to Romney on Jan. 31.

(The usual Weigel disclaimer: There are no national primaries.)